One problem occurs when areal units differ in size and significance, as is the case with election maps. ABC used yellow for Republicans and blue for Democrats in 1976, then red for Republicans and blue for Democrats in 1980, 1984, and 1988. Would Pennsylvania make a better early primary state. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also alluded the color scheme when it launched a national "Red to Blue Program" in 2006. However, because of the large geographical size of many states in the Central and Southern United States, the color-coded map appeared to show great support for Bush and the Republicans with smaller outliers of Democratic support on the coasts and near the Great Lakes.[32]. Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. [12] The 2000 election was not the first during which the news media used colored maps to depict voter preferences in the various states, but it was the first time the current red-blue terminology was used. States that voted against Mr. Trump in 2016 have seen 103,918 deaths, according to the latest New York Times tally on Thursday afternoon, compared with 91,525 in states that supported him. Generally, the same held true for married versus single women, but a greater percentage of women overall voted for Obama than for McCain. The exceptions were New Mexico (Al Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004), Iowa (Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004), and New Hampshire (Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004). NBC continued its color scheme (blue for Republicans) until 1996. You have to beware with these reports, though. Copyright 2023 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives. The Keystone State has participated in all 59 presidential elections through 2020. A large county or state in area may have fewer voters than a small one in area, for example. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. Well, Arizona is still counting and theres enough coming in to turn the state. [24] A juxtaposition of differing colors and shades can result in contrast misperceptions. Sen. Cory Gardner is now the only. As of February 2023, California had the most mass shootings in the United States, with 25 total shootings since 1982. Many argue that assigning partisanship to states is only really useful as it pertains to the Electoral College, as well as (more recently) the Senate, primarily a winner-take-all system of elections (with the exceptions of Nebraska and Maine). [25] All these facts should be taken into account when looking at election maps. While some red counties shifted to the left, larger margins of victory than Clinton in already-blue countieswas the primary force thatdrove Biden to victory. Update: Philadelphia officials tell me they will report more mail-in ballot results betweenmidnight and 1 a.m. And West Virginia is losing. [3][4] However, the perception of some states as "blue" and some as "red" was reinforced by a degree of partisan stability from election to election from the 2000 election to the 2004 election, only three states changed "color"; and as of 2020, 35 out of 50 states have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000, with only 15 having swung between the 2000 and 2020 election. Click here to learn more about the role the Lancaster County Local Journalism Fund plays in Lancaster County and to make a tax-deductible donation. By this definition, Arizona and Georgia are still (slightly) red states R+7.6 and R+7.4, respectively. What determines a state's "color"? Republican We may not know results in PA fordays. And then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. Quickly thereafter, the term Purple America entered the public lexicon as a way of stating that the United States is not as divided as the political pundits would have the people believe. Here's why Pennsylvania is a Red State to the core. Please enable JavaScript to properly view our site. A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17states. [5] However, at that time, a maker of widely-sold maps accompanied them with blue pencils in order to mark Confederate force movements, while red was for the union.[6]. As of 2020, fully 35 out of 50 states in the U.S. have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000. In 2020, the state with the highest crime rate in the United States per 100,000 inhabitants was New Mexico. Continue with Recommended Cookies. Special elections, if any, are excluded. They think even if it moved a few votes it could be enough to win thestate. One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. The rate of drug overdose deaths has been steadily increasing in Tennessee over the past five years, and as with the other states, opioid drugs play a big role. These "purple maps" are useful for showing the highly mixed nature of voting, but are extremely difficult to interpret in detail. On election night that year, there was no coordinated effort to code Democratic states blue and Republican states red; the association gradually emerged. Pennsylvania, where the U.S. Constitution was written, was the second state admitted to the Union, officially becoming a state in December 1787. It is not a red state. During Biden's final stop in the state yesterday at a drive-in rally in Pittsburgh, following his barnstorm of the state with his running mate Kamala Harris and their spouses, he said for the zillionth time that he doesn't want to banfracking. However, the current U.S. scheme has become so ingrained in the American election system that foreign sources who cover U.S. elections, such as the BBC, Der Spiegel and El Mundo follow with the red-Republican, blue-Democratic scheme for U.S. However, there are pros and cons to both classified and unclassified choropleth maps. 30,000+ mail ballots a teeny tiny fraction of the 2.5 million received as of this morning in the state were just reported in Pennsylvania. It delivered a big margin for Clinton in2016. Global Liquidity Is Increasing Despite the Fed. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. This problem is compounded if the units are not equally significant. Updated on July 09, 2019 Our list of the most conservative states to live and work featured states favorable to people who enjoy greater liberties, educational choice, right-to-work status, and religious freedom. [23], Finally, there are problems associated with human perception. The "Democratic blue" and "Republican red" color scheme is now part of the lexicon of American journalism. Sacrificing the Future to China for Bidens Green New Deal. In 1908, The New York Times printed a special color map, using blue for Democrats and yellow for Republicans, to detail Theodore Roosevelt's 1904 electoral victory. .mw-parser-output .citation{word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}^1: Split their votes. The source defines a mass shooting as a shooting where three or more people. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies. Like around the country, we're seeing. Latino voters in the state, like those across the U.S., constitute a solid base for Democrats. Cartograms developed by Gastner, Shalizi, and Newman at the University of Michigan provide another way to depict election results,[28] which change from a red-blue paradigm to one of shades of purple.[29]. ", "Why the National Popular Vote Compact is Unconstitutional", "Why Blue States Should Exit Red America", "Majority of Trump Voters Want to Split the Nation Into 'Red' and 'Blue' Halves", "Majority of Trump voters believe it's 'time to split the country' in two, new poll finds", "Biden came in to unite, but poll shows US is now more divided than ever", "47% of West Coast Dems, 66% of Southern Republicans want to secede from U.S.", "Shocking poll finds many Americans now want to secede from the United States", "Still miles apart: Americans and the state of U.S. democracy half a year into the Biden presidency | Bright Line Watch", "How People of Faith Voted in the 2008 Presidential Race". We coach Little League in the blue states and have gay friends in the red states. Sorry Marc. I'm watching to see what happens in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest states which seems to be the most crucial for a potential Trump victory given the recent polling and his path to winning in 2016.I'm also watching to see what emerges as the chief issue for voters: the economy (which historically has favored Trump), or his administration's handling of Covid (where he has been far weaker in the polls). I think most of these states that we have either red or blue are going to be up for grabs. polls closed in Calif., Idaho, Ore., Wash. polls closed in Ariz., Colo., Kan., La., Mich., Minn., Neb., N.M., N.Y., N.D., S.D., Texas, Wis., Wyo. Archie Tse, The New York Times graphics editor who made the choice when the Times published its first color presidential election map in 2000, provided a nonpolitical rationale for retaining the redRepublican link, explaining that "Both 'Republican' and 'red' start with the letter 'R. Both parties have since adopted logos that use their respective colors (a blue "D" for Democrats[56] and a red "GOP" for Republicans). In 2016, President Donald Trump won the state by .7%, which totalled about 44,000 votes, and flipped three counties from blue to red. But I've got news for them, too. [1] Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties' geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.[2]. But in western Pennsylvania, as well as the northeast, it's more popular and has led to a boom in some areas that have been struggling economically for a long time. - Matter of Fact with Soledad O'Brien Perhaps no one is better at understanding Pennsylvania voters than former Governor Ed Rendell. To do so, he improved upon Clinton's margins in a range of both. [1] NBC newsman David Brinkley famously referred to the 1980 election map outcome showing Republican Ronald Reagan's 44-state landslide in blue as resembling a "suburban swimming pool".[14]. What are red and blue states? The blue states scored better two ways higher overall average rankings vs. red states (No. [30] It attempts to represent the margin of victory in each county by coloring each with a shade between true blue and true red. Data: MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse through 2018; 270toWin research. Several incidents will require follow-up byinvestigators. The state's 20 electoral votes could be pivotal in the 2020 race. Blue States No. They propose partition of the U.S. as a way of allowing both groups to achieve their policy goals while reducing the chances of civil war. Thirty of Penns 44 counties gave Trump 60% of the vote. Colored bars represent electoral votes by party. Starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms "red state" and "blue state" have referred to U.S. states whose voters vote predominantly for one party the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in blue states in presidential and other statewide elections. While all of these issues are concerning, none of them are too far out of the ordinary for issues that arise during any normal election year and this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and possibleconflict.". I talked to several elected officials and voter rights groups today, and everyone reported high turnout, particularly in Philadelphia. Nov. 12, 2020, 11:00 AM UTC / . We identify swing states as. [41][note 1][42]. The paradigm has been criticised on several fronts. Traditional political mapmakers, at least throughout the 20th century, had used blue to represent the modern-day Republicans, as well as the earlier Federalist Party. Most issues involving misunderstandings or miscommunication about voting rules and laws were resolved by Election Task Force prosecutors by phone, and DAO prosecutors and detectives also responded to investigate incidents at polling sites in all six Philadelphia Police divisions. On March 14, 2014, the California Republican Party officially rejected red and adopted blue as its color. I just got off the phone with the City Commissioners office in Philadelphia, and they told me that all the machines that process mail ballots are up and running and that things are going smoothly. Pennsylvanias demographic makeup has not altered dramatically in just four short years. *Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. Not one! It further claims that from 1976 to 2004, in an attempt to avoid favoritism in color-coding, the broadcast networks standardized the convention of alternating every four years between blue and red the color used for the incumbent president's party. [39] In 2008, 48 percent of U.S. voters lived in such counties, which increased further to 50 percent in 2012 and to 61 percent in 2016. It is not a blue state or a red state. Biden:43,949 (37.89%), 2016: Overall, Pennsylvania is a blue state 49 percent of registered voters are Democrats, 37 percent are Republicans and 14 percent are independents or members of minor parties. Three other regions were red before 2016 and got redder: the West, conservative Central Pennsylvania and the Dutch Country around Harrisburg and Lancaster. Overall, Pennsylvania is a "blue state" 49 percent of registered voters are Democrats, 37 percent are Republicans and 14 percent are independents or members of minor parties. How red or blue is your state? Thirty of Penn's 44 counties gave Trump 60% of the vote. [47][48][49] A different poll that same year grouped the United States into five geographic regions, and found that 37% of Americans favored secession of their own region. Although the Electoral College determines the presidential election, a more precise measure of how the country actually voted may be better represented by either a county-by-county or a district-by-district map. Texas was the biggest winner the second-most populous state added two congressional seats, while Florida and North Carolina gained one. Here's the count: 2020: *Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. You have entered an incorrect email address! For other uses, see, Contrast with color usage in other countries, Table of presidential elections by states since 1972. Prior to Election Day, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a request by Pennsylvania Republicans to block a state court order that allows mail ballots arriving up to three days after Nov. 3 to be counted. Eight of the states hardest hit by the coronavirusNew Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts. President-elect Joe Biden flipped five states from red to blue this election Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania and is expected to flip Georgia, where he leads Trump. In Maine, two of the four electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner in each of the state's two congressional districts. But Biden won the most votes in the most populous county, also called Jefferson. The cartographer must choose how many classes to use and how to divide the data into those classes. Clinton:36,322 (35.80%). These county-by-county and district-by-district maps reveal that the true nature of the divide is between urban areas and inner suburbs and rural and exurban areas. Joe Biden won back Pennsylvania for Democrats in the 2020 election after President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016. Three Michigan counties flipped from red to blue. Holly Ready to hear what you have to say on Pennsylvania! While I had less reporting on this, high turnout was also reported in the red parts of the state, too. Two counties flipped from red to blue: Erie, in Pennsylvania's northwestern corner, and Northampton, in eastern Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania's CPVI is R+2. CATO INSTITUTE: Central Bank Digital Currencies Are a Threat to Freedom. All three of those states were very close in both elections. Further highlighting this polarization: While relatively competitive overall, only four states (FL, NC, OH, VA) were decided by less than 5% popular vote margin in the 2012 presidential election. Gov. Alabama is the most Republican, and Washington the most Democratic state, according to new rankings from The Hill. Note that election maps of all kinds are subject to errors of interpretation. Biden won by larger margins than Clinton in every county that voted for her except for Philadelphia, where he won by about 4,000 fewer votes than Democrats had in 2016. Crime rate U.S. 2020, by state. After the results were final with the Republican George W. Bush winning, journalists stuck with the color scheme, as The Atlantic's December 2001 cover story by David Brooks entitled, "One Nation, Slightly Divisible", illustrated. The Wolverine State grew by 2.0% or 193,691 people from 2010 to 2020, raising its population to 10,077,331. In fact, the only Georgia county that flipped Burke voted Clinton in 2016, then Trump in 2020. [10][13], According to another source, in 1976, John Chancellor, the anchorman for NBC Nightly News, asked his network's engineers to construct a large illuminated map of the United States. [59][60][61], "Red state" and "Blue state" redirect here. In recent elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. Winner chosen by the House of Representatives But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump Michigan and Pennsylvania surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. Anita Trump aides were claiming high turnout in Republican areas in Luzerne, which is one of the three counties that flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016. Idaho solidifies its ranking as a top retirement state by offering many tax breaks for seniors. But what they didn't realize was that Trump was surging in rural parts of the state and flipping some swing counties like the ones mentionedabove. [58], The choice of colors in this divide may appear counter-intuitive to non-American observers, as in most countries, red is associated with socialist, communist, or social democratic parties, while blue is associated with conservative parties. In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia and Arizona, states that had last voted Democratic in 1992 and 1996, respectively. The map was placed in the network's election-night news studio. He won 56 percent to Trump's 43. How a life-sized Biden could be a larger-than-life president, Three reasons Joe Biden flipped the Midwest, 284,931 cast by those registered as no affiliation/third party/other, About 548,000 mail-in ballots have not been returned as of now but if they are postmarked by Election Day (or there is not a "preponderance of evidence" they were sent after) and received within three days, the state Supreme Court said they must be counted. Pennsylvania Joe Biden's projected win in his native state of Pennsylvania put him past the 270 total electoral votes needed to win the presidency. State voted with the overall winning candidate. He served as governor from 2003 to 2011 and was also the mayor of Philadelphia. The Blue States and the Red States are referred to as states of the U.S. whose voters predominantly choose either the Democratic Party (Blue) or Republican Party (Red) for Presidential and Senatorial Candidates. Virginia has continued voting for the Democratic presidential nominees (as well as increasingly electing Democrats at the state level), leading to its being reclassified as a blue state in recent years. Maps of this type are termed choropleth maps, which have several well-known problems that can result in interpretation bias. [21][22] Another problem relates to data classification. Trump's lone breakthrough in the "blue wall" in 2020 was the one electoral vote from Maine, which he again won. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the Stars and Stripes, all of us defending the United States of America."[26]. Some election maps, however, have violated this tradition by simply coloring each areal unit with a red-blue mixture linked to voting ratio dataresulting in an "unclassified choropleth map". But maps that color entire counties red or blue can dupe viewers: they make both states . Purple haze Pa.: Why the Keystone State is always a presidential battleground. Vertical lines before 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 show Census-related redistricting breakpoints. [24] Large areas of color appear more saturated than small areas of the same color. [40] At the same time, the 2020 U.S. presidential election marked the ninth consecutive presidential election where the victorious major party nominee did not win a popular vote majority by a double-digit margin over the losing major party nominee(s), continuing the longest sequence of such presidential elections in U.S. history that began in 1988 and in 2016 eclipsed the previous longest sequences from 1836 through 1860 and from 1876 through 1900. One smart PA Dem strategist told me he wanted Biden to get to 40% in the county. Inversely, in solidly red states, most voters in most urban counties voted for Democrat Barack Obama; good examples for this would be Dallas County, Texas and Fulton County, Georgia (the locations of major U.S. cities Dallas and Atlanta, respectively). [33] The polarization has been present for only four close elections (2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020). Same caution about borders applies. During Election Day in 2016, Democrats reported good turnout in Philadelphia, and Clinton actually pulled out almost as many raw votes out of Philly as Obama in 2012. When Is the Best Time for You to Do This? Likewise, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Hawaii all voted for Democrat Kerry by wide margins, but all had Republican governors at the time. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. The Hill . With the exception of Maricopa County (Phoenix), Trump won all the Arizona counties that voted for him in 2016 by even greater margins in 2020. MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse, Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. [1] According to The Washington Post, journalist Tim Russert invented these terms during his televised coverage of the 2000 United States presidential election. Both provided Obama with double-digit margins of victory over McCain. Red States 1 Arizona 1 Alabama 2 California 2 Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. In 1980, when John Anderson had a relatively well publicized campaign as an independent candidate, at least one network indicated provisionally that they would use yellow if he were to win a state. The. Pennsylvania's diversity is mostly on par with the rest of the nation. PUBLISHED: November 5, 2020 at 11:39 a.m. | UPDATED: November 5, 2020 at 7:29 p.m. Pennsylvania's continued ballot count from the general election showed the state possibly flipping from red to . During the Bush administration, the red-blue map was criticized by some[31] for exaggerating the perceived support for President Bush. By household income, Obama got a majority of households with less than $50,000 in annual income. Similarly, one state south, 56.45 percent of Oregon voters chose Joe Biden in 2020 compared to just 40.37 percent for Donald Trump. We may be entering the brief "blue mirage" portion of the night, where Biden deceptively looks like he's doing well because counties first report the mail ballots they've been counting all day, and Biden supporters disproportionately voted by mail. There was an error processing your request. A measuring device or measuring instrument is a device to measure a physical quantity or degree of something in our lives every day. FiveThirtyEight's forecast currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020, but there's a lot of uncertainty here, especially in a state like Maine where the error bars. The last two elections have seen five states and a district in Maine break their same party streaks. "There is nothing inherently blue or red about this, by law or by design," Foley said. (This list is made as per the party winner of the Presidential election in each state [Not Governor], Here the Red represents Donald Trump whereas the Blue represents Joe Biden). Which means he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's currently leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine's 2ndDistrict. Is Your Good for Nothing Cash Doing Anything with Its Life? Pennsylvania is generally considered a battleground state, although it voted Democratic in the six elections prior to 2016. This is still a substantial difference from the period 1960 to 1980 when every state, save for Arizona, voted for each party at least once. 2020 Electoral Map Results. Each tend to show some patterns well while obscuring others. Similarly, at least one network would have used yellow to indicate a state won by Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, though neither of them did claim any states in any of these years.